Bihar has now become the epicenter of political controversy across India. The Election Commission of India (ECI), while conducting its Special Intensive Revision (SIR) campaign to clean up the electoral rolls ahead of the state assembly elections, has revealed something that has stirred a massive uproar: more than 60 lakh names from the previous voter list were not found.

While the Commission is simply fulfilling its constitutional responsibility of ensuring free and fair elections, the Opposition seems deeply troubled. The I.N.D.I. Alliance, also known as the Mahagathbandhan and led by Tejashwi Yadav, the former deputy chief minister and current opposition leader, has openly challenged the move. Their reaction has been intense, claiming that this process is a form of "disenfranchisement", alleging "voter fraud", and going as far as saying it's "an attack on democracy", with threats of boycotting the upcoming elections.

But when one takes a step back and looks at the larger picture, the Election Commission’s move is not only justified—it’s long overdue. Its goal is simple: to remove duplicate, deceased, or relocated voters from the rolls and protect the sanctity of the electoral process. And this isn't a sudden decision. A research paper authored by professors from the Indian Institute of Management (IIM) had already raised concerns about voter list inaccuracies, estimating that more than 70 lakh voters—over 9% of Bihar’s electoral roll—could be bogus.

This is not just an administrative exercise—it’s a foundational correction that could significantly affect the credibility of future elections in the state.

EC’s Findings Reveal a Deep Rot in Bihar’s Voter Roll

On 25th July, the Bihar Election Commission released a statement that startled many. It reported that 99.8% of the voters in the state had been covered under the SIR campaign. The sheer scale of the operation is immense. More than 77,000 Booth Level Officers (BLOs), around 3,000 assistant officers, and over 1.6 lakh Booth Level Agents (BLAs) from various political parties have been involved in the voter verification drive.

According to the Chief Electoral Officer (CEO) of Bihar, more than 7.23 crore voter forms have already been submitted and digitized. These names are scheduled to be made public on 1st August, offering transparency and allowing for review before finalization. It’s also expected that BLOs will complete the remaining pending forms and reports by that date.

The revelations were significant. The drive identified 35 lakh individuals who were either not found or had permanently relocated, 22 lakh were found to be deceased, 7 lakh voters were enrolled in multiple locations, and about 1.2 lakh forms were still pending as of the latest update.

To maintain transparency and provide opportunities for redressal, the Election Commission also shared its findings on 20th July with representatives from 12 major political parties, including the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Congress, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Janata Dal (United), Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), and Communist Party of India (Marxist). These parties were given access to lists of voters marked as deceased, relocated, or those who hadn’t submitted forms—so they could raise objections or provide clarifications before the Draft Roll was finalized.

How Bihar’s Voter Roll Cleanup Is Being Conducted with Transparency and Accountability

The Election Commission has been clear in its approach—leave no stone unturned and no voter behind. As of 24th June, Bihar had 7.89 crore registered voters. Out of them, more than 7.24 crore submitted their enumeration forms, showing the widespread participation of citizens in the process.

Phase 1 of SIR data (Source: Election Commission)

This massive verification effort has been backed by District Election Officers (DEOs) from all 38 districts, 243 Electoral Registration Officers (EROs), nearly 3,000 Assistant EROs (AEROs), and 77,895 BLOs stationed at polling booths across the state. All this has been done with active participation from the representatives of all 12 key political parties in the state. These parties appointed their District Presidents and 1.60 lakh BLAs to oversee and assist in the process.

Total number of BLAs increased 16%+ during SIR period. (Source: Election Commission)

In a rare feat of civic engagement, more than 5.7 crore voters who had shared their mobile numbers received SMS alerts explaining the procedures. The CEO, DEOs, and EROs launched continuous awareness campaigns to educate people about the importance of the SIR campaign. They also conducted multiple meetings with political parties to keep them informed and clarify their doubts.

At the booth level, BLAs selected by political parties coordinated with BLOs to ensure smooth operations. Each BLA was allowed to submit 50 Enumeration Forms per day, strengthening their involvement. BLOs personally visited homes to distribute the forms and ensured that every voter listed as of 24th June was approached. Each home received at least three follow-up visits to collect completed forms.

In parallel, volunteers and BLAs engaged directly with voters, encouraging participation and ensuring no one was left out of the democratic process.

This exercise is a shining example of how a democratic system, when executed with dedication and transparency, can correct deep-rooted flaws. While political noise surrounds it, the effort on the ground is one of integrity, scale, and commitment to a fair electoral process.

IIM Research Paper Lays Bare the Depth of Electoral Roll Inaccuracy in Bihar

While the Election Commission’s Special Intensive Revision (SIR) campaign is doing its part to weed out ineligible and fake voters from Bihar’s electoral list, a critical piece of academic work has brought even more clarity to this long-standing problem. A research paper jointly authored by Dr. Milan Kumar, an Assistant Professor at the Indian Institute of Management (IIM) Visakhapatnam and Dr. Vidhu Shekhar, an Assistant Professor at S.P. Jain Institute of Management & Research—who is also an alumnus of IIT Kharagpur and IIM Calcutta—has confirmed that Bihar’s electoral records have been plagued by fake voter entries for years.

This comprehensive paper, released in July 2025, is titled:
“Estimating Legitimate Voter Numbers in Bihar (2025): A Demographic and Migration-Based Reconstruction.”
It proposes a precise simulation method based on demographic accounting identity to estimate how many voters in Bihar are actually eligible for 2025. Rather than relying on existing voter rolls, the researchers have taken a fresh approach, building their model from the ground up using scientifically grounded methods.

Estimating Legitimate Voter Numbers in Bihar (2025): A Demographic and Migration-Based Reconstruction

The research began by assessing the 2003 voter list for Bihar, which had 4.96 crore registered voters, and then estimating how many of those individuals would still be alive in 2025. The process was designed to make a demographically sound adjustment to the historical voter base, accounting for natural attrition over a 22-year period. This means the study accounted for factors like age, death rates, and natural population decline.

Since India’s voter list isn’t organized by age, the researchers turned to the 2001 Census data for adult age distribution. This helped them align their calculations with real-world population structures. The result? A foundational data point that gives a realistic idea of how many 2003 voters should still be around in 2025, regardless of roll inflation or enumeration mistakes.

This first step served as a key pillar in calculating legitimate voter numbers, giving both policymakers and the Election Commission a solid base to understand where discrepancies may lie.

Estimating Legitimate Voter Numbers in Bihar (2025): A Demographic and Migration-Based Reconstruction

Scientific Methods Confirm the Reality Behind Voter Discrepancies

The study does not rely on conjecture. As the paper explains, “All estimates are derived from official sources, including Census data, SRS Abridged Life Tables and validated demographic literature.” The authors applied a deliberately conservative bias to avoid overstating the discrepancy, ensuring that even the most cautious models wouldn’t exaggerate the numbers.

A large part of the analysis leaned on the Registrar General of India’s Sample Registration System (SRS) Abridged Life Tables for two periods: 2011–2015 and 2018–2022. These tables provide what are known as lx values, which represent the number of people surviving to a certain age out of every 100,000 births.

Estimating Legitimate Voter Numbers in Bihar (2025): A Demographic and Migration-Based Reconstruction

After collecting these values, the researchers performed linear interpolation to estimate survival rates between age groups. The formula they used was:
Survivors cohort = Cohort Size × Survival Probability
This method calculated the number of people who would have survived from each age group listed in the 2003 voter list until 2025.

Estimating Legitimate Voter Numbers in Bihar (2025): A Demographic and Migration-Based Reconstruction

The final estimate from this phase was clear: assuming no migration, about 3.41 crore individuals from the 2003 voter list would be alive and eligible to vote in 2025. As the paper emphasized, “This estimate had been based on: Disaggregated voter list using Census-based age structure, state-specific mortality data from Sample Registration System (SRS) and linear interpolation where necessary.”

This section forms the baseline adjustment to the historical voter roll, which the authors affirm is both demographically rigorous and policy-relevant.

Estimating Bihar’s Young Voters Born Between 1985 and 2007

Beyond historical voter data, the study looked at people who would become eligible to vote between 2003 and 2025. These are citizens who “were born between 1985 and 2007”, who “thus turned 18 years of age between 2003 and 2025”, and who are “still alive in 2025.” This is the second key component of the research.

To estimate this group, the authors used a two-step demographic model. First, they calculated annual birth cohort sizes. Then, they applied age-specific survival probabilities to estimate how many of those people would still be alive in 2025.

The calculation for each birth year followed the formula:
Births year = (CBR year / 1000) × Population year
where CBR is the Crude Birth Rate and population is Bihar’s estimated population for that year. The Ministry of Health and Family Welfare’s Central Bureau of Health Intelligence (CBHI) provided the CBR values. For years before 1991 (from 1985 to 2000), the team used backcasting methods derived from Census and National Family Health Survey (NFHS) data.

Estimating Legitimate Voter Numbers in Bihar (2025): A Demographic and Migration-Based Reconstruction

Next, survival probabilities were calculated using:
Survivors (year) = Births (year) × Survival Probability (age), where age = 2025 – birth year
The survival values were derived from a hybrid average of lx values taken from both SRS 2011–2015 and SRS 2018–2022 data sets.

The reason for hybridizing the two data sets was carefully explained:
“This hybridization is methodologically justified because the SRS 2011–2015 data reflect survival conditions relevant for mid-life and older cohorts who were born in the 1980s and early 1990s. The SRS 2018–2022 data captures more recent improvements or distortions in survival, especially for younger age groups. Averaging these periods offers a balanced estimate, smoothing over any year-specific anomalies.”

Estimating Legitimate Voter Numbers in Bihar (2025): A Demographic and Migration-Based Reconstruction

This entire process was repeated for each year from 1985 to 2007, making it 23 separate annual cohorts. The result? A clear estimate of how many individuals from each cohort were alive and therefore eligible to vote in 2025.

The study found that the population born between 1985 and 2006, who would be aged 19 to 40 years in 2025, was 4.61 crore. An additional 0.22 crore individuals born in 2007, who would be 18 years old in 2025, brought the total to 4.83 crore.

The authors concluded, “This cohort-based methodology, grounded in official demographic data, provides a robust and transparent estimate of the number of new legal voters added to the Bihar electorate between 2003 and 2025.”.

Bihar’s Massive Permanent Outmigration Revealed in Demographic Study

One of the most crucial aspects of the voter discrepancy issue in Bihar is the state’s large-scale permanent net outmigration—a topic that the research paper by Dr. Milan Kumar and Dr. Vidhu Shekhar addresses with detailed calculations and cautious estimates. The authors emphasized that their figures were rooted in a “conservative estimate” of how many people have permanently moved out of Bihar between 2003 and 2025, based on migration patterns from the 2001–2011 decade. They made it clear that the model assumes the migration rate has remained constant since then, even though other studies suggest it has likely increased.

The paper described this conservative assumption as “useful as a lower-bound benchmark for adjusting Bihar’s 2025 projected voter base.” This means that the study deliberately undercounted the number of migrants to ensure the resulting voter adjustment would be cautious, not exaggerated.

In defining permanent outmigration, the study focused only on individuals who had resided outside Bihar for a year or more—with a preference for durations equal to or greater than five years. These individuals had moved for work, marriage, or family relocation. The researchers made it clear that transitory migrants, such as students, seasonal laborers, or people on short-term contracts, were not included in this analysis.

The 2011 Census recorded 73 lakh people who had left Bihar and settled in other Indian states for the above-mentioned reasons. Among them, employment, marriage, and family relocation were identified as the leading causes. The standard definition used was a minimum of one year of residence in the new state, consistent with Census reporting norms for permanent migration.

The researchers noted that, “based on Census tabulations and supporting analysis from scholarly/literature, approximately 75-85% of interstate migrants from Bihar are considered long-term or permanent.” To maintain a cautious stance, they used the lower-end estimate of 75%, resulting in a calculated 54.75 lakh permanent migrants from Bihar between 2001 and 2011.

To narrow it further, they estimated that from 2003 to 2011, Bihar saw 43.8 lakh permanent migrants, assuming consistent annual migration over that decade.

Estimating Legitimate Voter Numbers in Bihar (2025): A Demographic and Migration-Based Reconstruction

Net Outmigration from Bihar Touches 1.12 Crore—A Conservative but Alarming Estimate

The researchers extended their analysis to cover the 2011 to 2025 period, again assuming that the migration rate remained unchanged from the previous decade. Though other data sources indicate that outmigration from Bihar has increased in recent years, the paper clearly stated:
“This is a conservative estimate as research indicates that outmigration from Bihar has been an increasing trend.”

Following this approach, the study calculated that 76.65 lakh people had migrated permanently from Bihar between 2011 and 2025. This was based on an annual migration rate of 5.475 lakh people.

Estimating Legitimate Voter Numbers in Bihar (2025): A Demographic and Migration-Based Reconstruction

The study also addressed inward migration, noting that it was very low in Bihar and therefore, for adjustment purposes, was excluded from the core voter projection. According to the 2011 Census, Bihar’s total population stood at 103,804,637, and among them, only 7,06,557 people had migrated into the state from other Indian states. This gave Bihar an inward migration rate of just 0.68%, which is minimal.

Updating this rate for the 2023 caste census, which estimated Bihar’s population at 13 crore, the researchers calculated that the inward migration figure was approximately 8.8 lakh. However, as clarified in the paper, this was a total inbound migration figure, not limited to just permanent migrants.

This number was factored in while calculating the final permanent net outmigration, which the paper defined as:
1.12 crore people who permanently left Bihar between 2003 and 2025.

Estimating Legitimate Voter Numbers in Bihar (2025): A Demographic and Migration-Based Reconstruction

Despite some progress in education, labour market improvements, and infrastructure development, the study found no significant drop in interstate migration pressures. The researchers adopted this purposeful undercount strategy to “guarantee conservative voter base adjustment in Bihar.” This approach reflects standard demographic modeling procedures, which aim to minimize uncertainty and provide a credible lower-bound estimate.

As the researchers wrote, “Using a fixed migration rate from the 2001–2011 period, the estimated number of permanent net outmigrants from Bihar between 2003 and 2025 is: 1.12 crore. This figure ensures conservatism in voter base adjustments while maintaining demographic credibility.”

This critical estimate plays a pivotal role in understanding the gap between the projected legitimate voters and the inflated electoral roll in Bihar. It reinforces the need for regular revision and thorough audits of voter lists—something the Election Commission’s current efforts are attempting to achieve.

Bihar’s Voter List Faces Shocking Reality—Inflated by Over 77 Lakh Names

The conclusion of the research paper authored by Dr. Milan Kumar and Dr. Vidhu Shekhar presents a detailed and data-backed analysis that leaves little room for doubt. Through demographic reconstruction and conservative estimation techniques, the paper offers a methodologically sound projection of Bihar’s legitimate voter base for the year 2025.

The analysis first identified that 3.41 crore voters from the 2003 electoral list were still alive in 2025. Then, it calculated 4.83 crore new eligible voters, comprising individuals born between 1985 and 2007. From this sum, the authors subtracted 1.12 crore permanent outmigrants—people who had moved out of Bihar between 2003 and 2025 and were no longer eligible to vote in the state. Combining all these factors, the final tally of legitimate voters for 2025 came to 7.12 crore.

Estimating Legitimate Voter Numbers in Bihar (2025): A Demographic and Migration-Based Reconstruction

However, the official electoral roll lists 7.89 crore voters, revealing a stark gap.

The paper underlined, “Compared to the official electoral roll of 7.89 crore, this suggests a potential inflation of 77 Lakh voters (9.7%). This analysis employs conservative assumptions throughout to avoid overstating discrepancies, making it a credible baseline for policy discussions regarding electoral roll integrity in Bihar.”

This means that nearly one out of every ten voters on the list could potentially be illegitimate—either deceased, relocated, or falsely enrolled.

The research paper doesn’t just stop at stating the problem; it also identifies three major reasons for this discrepancy:

1. “Non-removal of migrants: Voters who migrate out do not file Form 8 to deregister, leaving them on both origin and destination lists.”

2. “Duplicate entries: The absence of a unified electoral roll allows individuals to remain registered in multiple states.”

3. “Inclusion of undocumented residents: Urban slums and border districts are particularly vulnerable to informal or fraudulent registration.”

The Election Commission's Special Intensive Revision (SIR) initiative directly addresses these issues. The study pointed to these very problems—duplicate entries, non-removal of migrants, and illegal inclusions—as the root cause of Bihar’s inflated voter list.

Highlighting the broader value of this analysis, the authors remarked, “The paper demonstrates the value of demographic accounting in electoral administration and provides a framework that could be applied to other states facing similar challenges with voter roll maintenance and migration-related adjustments.”

They further concluded that the findings strongly support the ongoing SIR in Bihar, as it is the only viable method to clean the voter rolls thoroughly. The study emphasized the importance of field verification and systematic removal of ineligible voters. In its final statement, the paper declared,
“The magnitude of potential roll inflation documented here provides strong empirical justification for such an intensive administrative intervention.”

Political Dramatics Shouldn’t Undermine the Truth Behind Electoral Integrity

Despite the data-driven insights presented by both the Election Commission and this independent academic research, political tensions in Bihar continue to escalate. The SIR initiative, which was designed to improve transparency and eliminate fake voters, is now facing unnecessary backlash from the opposition parties, particularly the Mahagathbandhan alliance.

The irony is hard to miss. The same parties that are now raising loud objections were not only kept informed throughout the revision process but also had their representatives and Booth Level Agents (BLAs) actively involved at every stage. And yet, instead of engaging constructively, these groups have turned this corrective action into a politically charged controversy.

The research paper clearly supports the Election Commission’s stance, stating that fraudulent and duplicate entries must be eliminated to maintain the integrity of elections. But rather than supporting the initiative, opposition leaders are accusing the government of “disenfranchisement”, seemingly overlooking their own role in the problem.

Addressing this head-on, Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) Gyanesh Kumar asked a bold and clear question:
“Should we be swayed by these attacks and allow bogus votes to be cast in the name of deceased, permanently shifted, enrolled at two or more places or illegal foreign immigrants? First in the state and then across the country?”

This statement isn’t just rhetorical—it gets to the heart of the matter. The real issue isn’t political optics. The real challenge is whether the country can uphold the basic principles of a clean and fair democratic process.

No democracy can function properly if elections are manipulated by fake voters and unverified registrations. Regardless of the political noise, the fake voters must be removed, and genuine, rightful voters must be ensured their place on the electoral roll. Only then can elections truly represent the will of the people, not the fabricated numbers of a manipulated system.