The West Bengal Vidhan Sabha election is now just a month away, and the political climate in the State is far from calm. The Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress (TMC) government is facing pressure from multiple sides. This strain is not only because of the strong challenge from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), but also due to the rise of several ‘Muslim parties’ that are gradually cutting into what has long been considered Mamata Banerjee’s core support base.

To understand the present situation, it is important to look at the past. According to historical estimates, the Muslim population in West Bengal stood at 19.46% in 1951. For many years after Independence, this community largely supported the Indian National Congress. The Congress party managed to maintain this support through policies that were often seen as appeasement-driven, while also projecting itself as a ‘secular’ force. This helped the party retain the Muslim vote bank for decades, although its grip has weakened over time.

A major political shift took place in the late 1970s when the Communist Party of India (Marxist), or CPI(M), came to power in West Bengal. Over the next thirty years, the Left Front established itself as a dominant force, gaining the trust of Muslim voters by addressing their demands. At the same time, the party positioned itself as ‘atheist’ and strongly opposed to Hindu nationalism, which further strengthened its appeal among minorities.

However, the political landscape changed once again with the rise of Mamata Banerjee, often referred to as ‘Banglar Meye’. With a master’s degree in Islamic history, she adopted policies that significantly expanded outreach towards the Muslim community. Under her leadership, appeasement politics reached a new level, with critics arguing that governance increasingly focused on benefiting one community over others.

Over the years, the Muslim population in West Bengal has grown and is now estimated to be between 30% and 33% by 2025. Alongside this demographic change, there have been increasing reports of religious tensions, riots, and targeted incidents, with allegations of state inaction or complicity. A section of the community, which has received political attention for decades, is now seeking even greater representation and influence.

This evolving political environment has led to the rise of new parties with a clear religious identity. The Indian Secular Front (ISF), the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), and the Aam Janata Unnayan Party (AJUP) have emerged as players aiming to directly represent Muslim interests. These developments mark a clear shift, as many Muslim voters are now moving away from traditional ‘secular’ parties and showing interest in parties that openly focus on community-based politics.

This trend reflects how demographic changes, combined with increased political awareness and access to power, can reshape voting patterns and encourage identity-based politics in a State.

The Evolution of Appeasement Politics in West Bengal

The roots of appeasement politics in West Bengal go back to the period immediately after Partition. Under Congress rule, Muslims who stayed in India found political support within the party. While reforms were introduced in Hindu personal laws, the Congress avoided making changes to Muhammedan law, which further reinforced its position among Muslim voters.

The party also used institutions like the Waqf Board to appoint loyal individuals and maintain influence among religious leaders. Alongside this, funding for madrasas was increased, efforts towards a uniform civil code were resisted, and Muslim candidates were often given significant political representation.

As noted by Tawseef Ahmad Malik in his research, “Election results of 1952 show that a large number of Bengali Muslims did support the Congress. Candidates with Congress ticket won in most constituencies having large number of Muslims,” (source: Electoral Preferences of Muslims in West Bengal: An Analysis of Lok Sabha Elections).

By the late 1970s, however, this support began to shift. The Left Front emerged as a new political force, attracting Muslim voters who saw it as a better alternative. Malik further observes, “The political victory of the Left Front in 1977 and 1982, and various programmes undertaken by them for the minorities, made it a suitable alternative to the Congress,”.

One of the key policies during the Left rule was land reform. The redistribution of surplus land benefited many, including members of the Muslim community, strengthening their support for the CPI(M), which came to be seen as a protector of their interests.

In 1989, a controversial move by the West Bengal government drew attention. A circular was issued recommending the removal of certain discussions about the medieval period from textbooks, stating it was “too controversial.” The directive further stated, “Muslim rule should never attract any criticism. Destruction of temples by Muslim rulers and invaders should not be mentioned.” This move was widely debated and remains a point of historical and political discussion.

The government also faced criticism for its handling of freedom of expression. Bangladeshi writer Taslima Nasreen, known for her criticism of radical Islam, was effectively forced to leave West Bengal, which reinforced the perception of a pro-Muslim stance.

In more recent developments, the CPI(M)’s decisions regarding the Other Backward Classes (OBC) quota came under legal scrutiny. The Calcutta High Court struck down certain classifications in May 2024, noting irregularities in the inclusion process. Between 1994 and 2009, 66 classes were declared as OBCs, with about 12 belonging to the Muslim community. Later, in 2010, 42 new classes were added through executive orders, of which 41 were from the Muslim community.

These classifications made these groups eligible for reservations in government jobs. Additionally, in February 2010, the CPI(M) government introduced a 10% reservation for Muslims in government employment.

Shift in Muslim Voting Patterns and Rise of TMC

The shift of Muslim voters from the Left Front to the Trinamool Congress did not happen overnight. It was a gradual process that picked up speed between 2006 and 2011. A key turning point was the Nandigram movement, where land acquisition for industrial purposes led to protests, particularly among Muslim farmers. Mamata Banerjee capitalised on this issue, gaining widespread support.

After coming to power, the TMC government introduced new policies that continued the trend of community-focused governance. It declared 35 new classes as OBCs, of which 34 belonged to the Muslim community.

In February 2012, Mamata Banerjee announced that Urdu would be recognised as the second language in areas where Urdu-speaking populations exceeded 10%. Another notable initiative was the introduction of financial support for Muslim clerics and muezzins under a scheme known as ‘Imam Bhata’.

At the same time, the government faced criticism for several decisions, including issues related to religious festivals, opposition to policies like NRC and CAA, and its stance on legislative changes such as the Waqf Amendment Act.

Mamata Banerjee’s remarks in May 2019 also sparked controversy. She referred to Muslims as ‘milk-providing cows’, stating, “Je goru dudh dei, tar lathio khete hoi” (If a cow gives milk, one has to be prepared for its kicks also)”. The statement drew widespread reactions and became a talking point in political debates.

Emergence of New Political Forces

Since 2021, a new political trend has been visible in West Bengal. Despite years of policies aimed at appeasement, sections of the Muslim community are now turning towards parties that explicitly advocate political Islam.

The Indian Secular Front (ISF), founded in 2021 by Abbas Siddiqui, is one such example. Siddiqui had earlier made controversial statements, including a prayer for extreme harm during the Coronavirus pandemic. Despite this, the ISF managed to win the Bhangar Vidhan Sabha seat.

At the same time, AIMIM, led by Asaduddin Owaisi, entered the State’s political arena and managed to attract a portion of the Muslim vote.

Ahead of the 2026 elections, another development added to the changing landscape. Trinamool Congress MLA Humayun Kabir, who admitted to making hate speeches against Hindus at the direction of Mamata Banerjee, launched his own party, the Aam Janata Unnayan Party (AJUP). He also stirred controversy by speaking about rebuilding the Babri Masjid in Murshidabad, which gained him support among certain sections.

Unlike earlier times, Muslim voters in West Bengal now have multiple options, including ISF, AIMIM, and AJUP. This signals a clear shift in political preference, with a growing inclination towards parties that openly represent community-specific interests.

Interestingly, Asaduddin Owaisi echoed this sentiment on 22nd March while announcing a pre-poll alliance between AIMIM and AJUP, suggesting that traditional parties have not adequately served Muslim interests.

Electoral Stakes and Possible Outcomes

The West Bengal Vidhan Sabha has 294 seats, and the Muslim vote is expected to play a decisive role in at least 85 constituencies where Muslims form a majority. These include districts such as Murshidabad (66%), Malda (51%), North Dinajpur (50%), Birbhum (37%), and South 24 Parganas (35%).

If constituencies with 25–30% Muslim voters are also considered, the number of influential seats could rise to between 110 and 120.

In the 2021 elections, the Trinamool Congress won 75 out of these 85 Muslim-majority seats, contributing significantly to its overall tally of 213 seats. However, the emergence of the AJUP-AIMIM alliance presents a new challenge.

If this alliance performs strongly in even 40 to 50 seats, it could significantly impact the TMC’s position, potentially leading to a loss of 50 to 70 seats. This makes the upcoming election one of the most closely watched political contests in recent years, with shifting loyalties and new players reshaping the battlefield.